A CoVid19 Synopsis

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A CoVid19 Synopsis

CoVid19 is contracted through mocous membrames, mostly in the respiratory system. It spreads primarily in respiratory droplets, both larger, traveling up to six feet, and to a lesser extent arisonized dropplets which by their size carry a lower virus load and traves farther, up to about 26 feet. As a result, surface contact is possible but much less effective, and masks which directly address respiratory droplets are most effective. The viral load rises dramaticly in the first nine days during which most transmission occurs. Covid19 is most infectious about two days before symptoms begin and for five days afterward. Symptoms appear in up to fourteen days, if at all, with deaths, about 1.7% of infections, usually after about three weeks. Prolonged recovery is increasingly common as are neurological problems. Long Haul cases have remained in hospital for as much as six months, with long term damage apearing in more cases now.

While it is spread mostly through the lungs, it appears to be a blood disease causing clotting, and can attack almost all tissues from "covid toes" to the brain, and can cause permanent damage with reports of chronic lung and psychological problems increasing.

Testing is a contetious problem, expensive, inconveniont, and politicized. Testing where the results does not effect responce, as is with results taking over three days or those without symptoms and in quarentine is useless. To be useful to society, all positive tests need track and trace to prevent further spread.

Effective measures to limit contasion primarily address respiratory spread. "Deep Cleaning" is of limited efficacy while masks limit the spread of respiratory droplets from those with the virus and reduce the transmited viral load to those wearing a mask. The human imune system eliminates hundreds of potential diseases daily, but has problems with much larger exposures so masks are useful to both others and the wearer. That is why medical workers who are exposed to multiple high viral loads need N95 masks to reduce their immune systems exposure to the virus. A massive exposure can overwhelm a strong immune system.

Epidemics require a chain of transmission and can continue only as long as it can reach new victims. Where the responce does not allow its transmission a disease is stopped. In Southern states like Alabama, Florida and Georgia, a spike in cases among those ages 20 to 39 led to a jump in cases nine days later among those ages 40 to 59, followed by a jump in cases 15 days later among those 60 and older. Transmission can be stopped by mask use, physical isolation from new victims (~14 days for CoVid19), or no susceptible hosts due to immune resopnce from imunization or previous infection. Iceland, New Zealand, and China have been notably successful while those unwilling to effectively respond long enough to stop it (US, Brazil, India) continue to suffer.

With over 220,000 deaths as of 9/22/2020, the U.S., which accounts for roughly 21% of all confirmed Covid-19 deaths around the world despite having only 4% of the world?s population, reporting about 61.09 deaths per 100,000 residents, the 11th most deaths per capita, more than the world's average per capita. It is one of the many signs that the Trump administration has done a poorer job of controlling the virus than dozens of other governments around the world.

We know how to stop Covid-19. If everyone wears a mask and observes physical distancing, with tracking and isolation, Covid-19 would cease to grow and would end within six weeks, allowing economic re-opening. Elimination of control measures when the curve is bent is like stopping chemo when a cancer tumor stops growing. Refusal to eliminate exposures insures covid19 will kill more people.